Forecasting air passenger demand with system dynamics under terrorism threat

Abstract

In this study, a simulation model was developed in order to forecast and analyze air passenger demand and to determine when a capacity expansion in Istanbul Atatürk International Airport will be needed using System Dynamics approach. In thorough literature survey it is found that average airfare, runway capacity, average number of flights per day, level of service, births, deaths, immigration to Istanbul, immigrations from Istanbul, population of Istanbul, Gross Domestic Products and Gross Domestic Products growth rate are key factors considered when creating models for air passenger demand. In this paper, we insert terror attacks as a new factor that may affect air transportation demand in Istanbul Atatürk International Airport. Increase in the number of terrorists may increase the number of attacks and may have a very negative effect on the mobility of people who live in Turkey or who want to visit Turkey. There were always terror attacks in Turkey in past too, but after ISIL emerging terror threats became more frequent. So terror became a very important factor which effects air passenger demand in Istanbul Atatürk International Airport in 2014 after terrorist attacks of ISIL. But results in this paper show that although terror might have a negative effect on air transportation demand, other factors for example airfare, population, runway capacity etc. play dominant roles and capacity expansion in Istanbul Atatürk International Airport will be required until 2023. This paper shows that capacity of Istanbul Atatürk International Airport will not be enough for air transportation and a new, bigger airport will be needed. Turkey has already started constructing a new airport in the north of Istanbul in 2014. © IEOM Society International.